Western countries expelled more than 570 Russian diplomats in 2022, mainly for unauthorized spying activities. As countries reduce Russia’s ability to use diplomatic cover for its spies, operatives are likely to exploit foreign companies to pursue their targets. In response, Russia may increase its reliance on non-official cover intelligence operatives, which use business, academic, or…

Russia’s indirect tactics against Western neighbors include the promotion and engagement in terrorist activities, the use of intelligence services to carry out disinformation campaigns and cyber-attacks against its adversaries, and the destabilization of Ukraine’s neighbors and supporters.

Russia continues to pose a threat of an expanded military conflict beyond Ukraine, with provocative intrusions and exercises against NATO members. Even with limited resources, Moscow could rely on more nuclear forces in future conflicts. NATO members are taking the threat of an expansion of the conflict seriously.