2025 Presidential Inauguration Threats

2025 Presidential Inauguration Threats
January 15, 2025 sdcpm
2025 Presidential Inauguration Threats - TorchStone Global

2025 Presidential Inauguration Threats

By TorchStone Senior Analyst, Ben West

It has been three months since TorchStone published the 2024 Election Unrest Guide and protest activity has been lower than expected. As we noted in October, there was an absence of exacerbating factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Black Lives Matter protest campaign that increased tensions in the lead-up to the 2020 elections. Additionally, President-Elect Trump’s decisive win and the lack of agitation from either side of the political spectrum have mitigated controversies surrounding the election. Furthermore, the procedural deadlines for certifying and submitting election results that became flashpoints in 2020/2021 have passed without opposition over the past two months.

However, there is an organized effort to protest President-Elect Donald Trump’s inauguration at demonstrations across the country in the days leading up to January 20, 2025. The unrest that accompanied President Trump’s first inauguration in January 2017 serves as a precedent for what to expect.

Additionally, there is a very real threat of politically motivated violence surrounding the inauguration that could occur independently of any protest movement. Attacks and thwarted attacks so far this year highlight the potential for violence. While increased security surrounding the U.S. Capitol building and National Mall is likely to prevent any attack on the inauguration ceremony itself, peripheral attacks are a major concern—both in Washington, D.C. and other symbolic areas.

Precedent for Protest

During President Trump’s first inauguration in January 2017, hundreds of activists protested in Washington, D.C., getting within just blocks of the White House and the perimeter of the inauguration ceremony. Protesters vandalized property and set small fires, leading to 217 arrests. The organizers referred to the protests as “DisruptJ20” and the “DC Welcoming Committee Collective.” The protesters began planning and organizing events in November 2016 and were demonstrating during the week leading up to January 20. DisruptJ20 inspired hundreds of other protests against President Trump’s administration in the initial months of his presidency in 2017.

While DisruptJ20 is no longer active, multiple groups are calling for protests against President Trump’s second inauguration on January 20, 2025. We Fight Back 2025 is so far the largest campaign organizing nationwide protests against President Trump’s inauguration. As of Jan 10, We Fight Back 2025 was promoting 73 protests nationwide over the week of Jan 18 – 25. The list of protest actions could grow over the coming week. Notable protest locations include:

  • Washington, D.C. – Organizers are planning to protest in Meridian Hill Park at 16th Street and Euclid Street NW starting from 11 am on Jan 20. This location is 1.5 miles N of the White House and 3 miles NW of the United States Capitol.
    We Fight Back 2025 Flyer Used to Promote Jan 20 Inauguration Protests

    We Fight Back 2025 Flyer Used to Promote Jan 20 Inauguration Protests

    While other protests may flare up throughout the city, this will likely be the main center of gravity for demonstrations in the capital. Meridian Hill Park’s distance from the major inauguration venues means that there will be plenty of warning and time to react if demonstrators begin to move south towards the inauguration event or the White House.

  • New York – Multiple groups are planning to gather in Washington Square Park starting from 1 pm on January 20. Participants include the Party for Socialism and Liberation, Code Pink, and the New York chapter of the Palestinian Youth Movement. Promotion of the event has attracted nearly 3,000 likes on Instagram as of January 10.
  • Los Angeles – Multiple groups are planning to gather outside Los Angeles City Hall starting from 2 pm on Jan 20. Supporting groups include the Party for Socialism and Liberation LA; Code Pink LA; Union De Vecinos; Black Men Build LA; and the pro-Palestine activity group, al Awda. Promotion of the rally has attracted around 1,700 likes on Instagram as of January 10. Ongoing fires in Los Angeles and the resulting clean-up efforts are likely to reduce turnout to this event. However, public anger over the fires has the potential to generate a separate protest campaign in the Los Angeles area.

Overall, the protest threat to the inauguration appears to be moderate. There have been no signs of a significant protest movement against President Trump manifesting over the past two months since the election. While there is certain to be turnout at the planned protest events, there is no indication that they will be significantly more disruptive than the baseline level of protest activity already present in major U.S. cities. It appears likely that continuing protest campaigns (such as the pro-Palestine protest movement) incorporate grievances against President Trump and use the inauguration to highlight their existing grievances.

Politically Motivated Violence

Violence is still possible despite the lack of a major protest campaign leading up to the election. What 2024/2025 has lacked in protest, it has made up for in targeted violence. The assassination of United HealthCare CEO Brian Thompson in New York on December 4 triggered a sympathetic reaction to the accused killer and we saw a wave of threats against executives and the elite in general over the following month. Then, a vehicle attack in New Orleans and the detonation of a homemade explosive device outside the Trump Hotel in Las Vegas on January 1 highlighted the persistent threat of lone assailants against high-profile targets and events. Preceding all of those more recent attacks were at least two serious assassination attempts against Donald Trump while he was campaigning for president.

And there have been two less publicized but equally concerning incidents over the past week that highlight the threat specifically to major events at the U.S. Capitol building. On January 8, Capitol Police arrested two individuals for posing a threat to the Capitol building while President Jimmy Carter was lying in state. First, Capitol Police arrested a man trying to enter the Capitol visitor center with a machete and multiple edged weapons. His motivation and intent remain unclear.

Then, later that same day, Capitol Police arrested a second man after he lit a bag on fire and placed it on top of his vehicle outside the Grant Memorial on First St, in front of the U.S. Capitol Building. Investigators found accelerants inside the bag, suggesting that the man intended to start a larger fire. However, the bag appears to have failed to fully ignite. Police do not think the two incidents were connected but they continue to investigate. The incident caused no major damage but highlights the type of threats that could continue to target the Capitol Building in the lead-up to and on January 20.

It is also worth remembering that the person who planted two pipe bombs on Capitol Hill on January 5, 2020, has never been identified and arrested.

Conclusion

The January 20 inauguration is a major event that will attract the world’s attention. Any major event has the potential to attract individuals and groups seeking attention to their grievances, whether they are political or personal in nature. Those attending the inauguration should certainly monitor protests planned at Meridian Hill Park for signs that they are moving south. Additionally, unsanctioned, potentially more violent protests like those that occurred in 2017 have the potential to materialize on the periphery of the inauguration. Finally, even if protests remain small and peaceful, there is also the threat of acts of violence from unstable individuals.