Active Shooter Attack Decline
By TorchStone Senior Analyst, Ben West
To learn more about how TorchStone can help your company develop an internal threat prevention program that adequately addresses the active shooter and other threats, please contact us.
Active shooter attacks and other forms of gun violence declined significantly in 2024. There are several factors contributing to the decline, but violence prevention is a factor worth studying. Attacks are not random, and neither are the practices that prevent them.
As annual reports for 2024 come out, one trend has become very clear: gun violence last year was the lowest since 2019. Whether the metric is firearm-related deaths, mass shootings, or active shooter threats, all statistics indicate encouraging progress.
The decline in 2024 was not an anomaly. Gun violence in the United States has been in overall decline since the COVID-19 pandemic peak in 2021. According to The Trace, gun deaths in 2024 were 19% lower than the peak in 2021 after three years of steady decline. The decline in mass shootings has not been as steady, but 2024’s 503 mass shootings were closer to 2019’s 414 mass shootings than 2021’s 689 mass shootings. So far, 2025’s 145 mass shootings (as of 12 June) set a trajectory for even lower levels of violence this year.
Active shooter threats have seen perhaps the most dramatic decline. According to the FBI, there were half as many active shooter incidents in 2024 compared to 2023, and casualties declined by 57%. Active shooter threats have similarly declined steadily since peaking in 2021 and, remarkably, continued to decline beyond pre-pandemic levels: 2024’s 24 active shooter incidents were the lowest since 2016.
The Other Side of the Coin: Thwarted Plots
The end of the COVID-19 pandemic and the spike in violence associated with worldwide disruptions partially explain the decline in gun violence. But the decline in active shooter attacks to pre-pandemic levels suggests additional forces mitigating the threat. The FBI defines active shooters as “one or more individuals actively engaged in killing or attempting to kill people in a populated area.” Examples include the May 30, 2024, shooting outside a bottling plant in Fort Worth, TX, that killed one person, or the 21 June 2024 shooting outside and inside a supermarket in Fordyce, Arkansas, that killed four people. Many high-profile school shootings are also considered active shooter attacks.
Increased awareness of the active shooter threat, more reliable channels to report threats, and more training on how to recognize and respond to threats are also likely contributing to the decline in active shooter attacks: In other words, see something, say something is as effective at preventing active shooter threats as it is at disrupting terrorist attacks.
While statistics on active shooter and mass shooting attacks are meticulously kept and scrutinized, we believe that it is equally important to recognize the violent plots that did not materialize, thanks to proactive measures to recognize and address attack plans in progress. Highlighting the prevented attacks and learning from them is just as important as studying the missed opportunities more prominently featured in the news.
For example, in May 2025, the FBI became aware of a 14-year-old in Oregon who was discussing a plot to conduct an armed attack on a local mall and then commit suicide. According to details the youth shared online, he had already chosen a route to a local mall, where he planned to detonate a homemade explosive device in order to force an evacuation, at which he would open fire on fleeing patrons. Even if the suspect had not fully realized his plan, simply opening fire at a mall would have surely led to casualties. Recognizing the threat and acting on it doubtlessly saved lives and contributed, in its small part, to the continued decline of active shooter attacks so far this year.
Other past examples highlight the importance of acting on threatening indicators. For example, in June 2024, after a 20-year-old Texas man repeatedly tried to buy firearms despite failing background checks, police obtained a warrant and placed him in custody. While in jail, the suspect instructed another person to destroy a recording he had made as part of a surveillance operation on a grocery store that he planned to attack. The evidence suggests that the suspect was on a pathway to violence, but that warning indicators surrounding his attempted weapons purchases (the weapons acquisition phase of his attack cycle) attracted scrutiny that derailed that trajectory.
One of the active shooter attacks in 2024 was likely resolved more quickly because police were already searching for the suspect when he opened fire on an outdoor dining area in Yellowstone National Park. Hours before the attack, the suspect had held a woman at gunpoint and told her he was going to carry out a mass attack. The victim reported the incident to park authorities, who began searching for the man and were better prepared to respond when he started his attack. As a result, the gunman only injured one person—a park ranger who was responding to the attack.
And then there are the early interventions that identify an escalating situation and manage it to avoid violent confrontation. TorchStone regularly works with clients to assess employee behavior and advise on how to proceed. In one example, TorchStone helped a company off-board an employee who had caused concern but who was improving with appropriate mental health treatment. Through our coordination with the client, we arranged a solution that avoided a sudden employment termination (and end to the mental healthcare that was improving the situation) that would have left the employee in a desperate, vulnerable situation, more likely to lead to rash and potentially violent behavior.
Success stories and even partial success stories are the result of lessons learned over years of missed opportunities to thwart an attack. An investigation into the October 2023 active shooting attack near Lewiston, ME, that killed 18 people found that the gunman, an Army Reservist, had exhibited multiple warning signs before the attack. The results of an investigation into the attack said that the shooter’s Army Reserve unit failed to respond to multiple concerning signals, including guidance from mental healthcare providers to remove weapons from the shooter’s home. The shooter’s family also raised concerns about his increasing paranoia and access to weapons, and the local sheriff’s office failed to use its authority to intervene. Failed opportunities to address the threat denied the suspect the help they needed and allowed the suspect more time to develop and conduct an eventual attack.
How to Prevent the Next Attack
According to the FBI’s 2024 Active Shooter report, 88 of the 223 active shooter attacks (39%) over the past five years have occurred at or near commercial spaces. Commercial locations are the second most commonly targeted behind public, open spaces. Given these trends, companies should have a violence prevention program that includes processes for identifying and addressing threats surrounding an active shooter.
And to be clear, such plans should consider warning signs that develop well before any shots are fired. Active shooter situations are not random—they are usually the result of a series of concerning behaviors that begin weeks, if not months, before an attack. According to the FBI’s 2024 active shooter report, authorities identified clearly predatory behavior in 14 of the 24 active shooter attacks—or about 58% of the time. Those 14 attacks accounted for 77% of all casualties and 87% of all deaths from active shooter attacks in 2024. What this tells us is that recognizing and acting on the most obvious signs of suspicious behavior is also likely to save the most lives. The longer someone has to plan and prepare for their attack, the more deadly they can become.
The FBI report notes there are some basic steps companies can take to reduce the threat of an active shooter situation or more routine instances of workplace violence targeting their personnel and offices:
- INFORM – Attacks can and have happened anywhere. Dispel the mindset that “it can’t happen here.”
- ENABLE – Employees should be confident in their ability to raise concerns about erratic or unusual behavior from a co-worker without fearing retaliation.
- BE PROACTIVE – Investigate and assess reports of suspicious behavior through either an in-house process or by delegating it to an outside party.
The bottom line is that active shooter attacks are preventable. Anecdotal evidence suggests that proactive reporting of concerning behavior and effective threat management are working. Programs to increase awareness and adopt basic threat prevention practices should be continued in an effort to further reduce the active shooter threat.